Open research: how AI models actually learn

What this is for. Training an AI model is expensive, and most of that cost is spent before anyone knows whether it was necessary. This is our ongoing search for ways to train models more cheaply, more efficiently and with fewer wasted runs, and for measurements that tell you early which approaches are worth paying for. It feeds directly into the models we build for clients: what we find here is what we do, or deliberately stop doing, on real work.

We run it in the open, using models small enough that anyone can reproduce every number on a laptop in minutes, and we publish the results and the data behind them here, including the ones that did not go the way we expected.

How to read the language in these records. These pages are a working laboratory notebook: the design, the numbers, the controls and the limits. Because that is what they are, you will read that an approach did not work, that a result did not hold up under a harder test, or that one method was worse than another. Those are findings, not admissions. Ruling an approach out is how the search narrows, and these are the pages that have taught us the most: a technique that looks promising and then fails a control tells you exactly where the next idea has to be different. Nearly everything we now rely on came out of understanding why something else fell short. If you would rather have the story than the record, the blog carries a plain-language version of most of these, written for a reader who has never seen a training curve.

Start with a question, not a record. Each card below is one question we set out to answer, with where it currently stands and the results behind it. Within a question the records are in the order we ran them, which is the order they are best read in: most build on the ones before, and several exist only because an earlier result made a new question askable.

Why we publish it rather than keeping it. We build custom AI models that you own and run yourself, using our own platform, and a model is only worth what its evaluation is worth. So we publish the whole record, not the flattering half: if a supplier cannot show you the experiments that went against their own idea, you have no way to check the ones that went their way. Holding our own work to that standard in public is the strongest evidence we can offer that we will hold yours to it too.

Ongoing research. These are experimental results from active work, not settled conclusions. The numbers are what we measured and the methods are described so you can judge them, but the programme is still running: later experiments here have already overturned earlier readings more than once, and several pages record exactly that. Expect this section to change as the work moves forward.

Get new results as we publish them

Roughly monthly, one finding per email, in plain English first. Including the approaches that turned out not to work, which are usually the useful ones. No sales email.

Double opt-in: we send a confirmation link and add nobody who does not click it. One-click unsubscribe on every email.

Everything below is one project, asked as 10 questions. Each has a short answer, and behind it the 149 individual results that got us there. Results that rule an approach out are published exactly like the ones that confirm it, and several of the most useful entries are places where a later check of ours revised an earlier conclusion of ours. That is the process working as intended.

Closed · 1 result

Does reshaping a model's internals make training cheaper?

No. The technique does exactly what it claims and the claim does not translate into an efficiency gain -- ordinary training reaches the same place, and the overhead is 23x the measured benefit.

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Still open · 15 results

Can you tell in advance that a model is about to improve?

Yes, repeatedly and by several independent routes -- a probe on the hidden state, gradient statistics, held-out loss, and which earlier word the prediction leans on. The warnings are real; how far ahead they fire varies a great deal.

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Still open · 2 results

Is seeing it coming actually worth anything?

So far, no. Both attempts to act on a warning were matched by acting at a random moment, and the detection cost more than the manoeuvre saved. What the warning is worth is a separate question from what makes training cheaper, which has its own page.

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Still open · 14 results

What actually happens at the moment a model learns?

It builds machinery rather than selecting it, working through the task in a reproducible order and trying a simpler wrong rule on the way. The visible training curve cannot tell you which is happening.

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Still open · 8 results

What decides when a model learns, and can you change it?

Settings dominate, data barely matters, and there is a brief window before the jump in which interrupting the model is unusually costly. Timing can be delayed but not brought forward.

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Still open · 32 results

Which parts of a model actually matter?

The parts that move most are not the parts that matter, and no single component is required -- the model routes around every freeze. What a part is worth shows up only when you remove it.

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Still open · 6 results

How much model does a task need, and what changes when it has more?

The abrupt jump is what spare capacity buys -- it fades smoothly as the model shrinks, long before the model stops working. Capacity and task difficulty act separately, not as a ratio.

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Still open · 4 results

Is the task we are studying actually hard?

Often it is not. A rule from 1990 with no parameters beats the trained model on the task most of these results were measured on, and what an intervention costs is set by the task's own structure.

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Still open · 36 results

How do we know our own results are real?

Repeatedly, the control rather than the measurement decided the result -- and several striking findings dissolved when the right comparison was finally run.

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Still open · 31 results

What actually makes training cheaper?

One thing has worked: stopping part of the training early saved about 7% with no loss of quality. Everything else tested has been matched by a simpler or cheaper method -- and in two cases the clever method was only winning because it was quietly being given more.

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